Commercial Appraiser Market Survey March 2020

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Commercial Appraiser Market Survey March 2020

[fusion_dropcap boxed=”no” boxed_radius=”” class=”” id=”” color=””]L[/fusion_dropcap]ast week, realquantum polled our community of readers to get a snapshot of the market conditions they are observing. There were a lot of “too soon to tell” comments which is understandable. Clearly, the coronavirus pandemic and the world’s response is evolving daily. So, the survey is not intended to predict where the world is going. Instead, this is a snapshot of the US in late March. (Most responses were from the US.) We’ll repeat the survey next month and keep sharing as the pandemic changes unfold.

Appraisal Activity

Not surprisingly, two thirds of people said their business was changed by the pandemic. Almost two-thirds said business was down at least somewhat. Concerningly, 30% of them said it was much slower than normal. The good sign was that it’s not all down. 22% are just as busy as before and the rest are busier. As we speak to customers, investors, and other experts in the CRE industry, there’s a general “wait and see” consensus. Everyone watched the CARES economic stimulus bill work it’s way through to become law. (It passed on Friday, March 27, 2020) In addition, there are plenty of logistical impacts everyone is dealing with. They include working at home, coordinating child care, and shelter-in-place orders. The bill has now passed and many families have created some kind of routine. Next will come the surge in COVID-19 infection rates across the country. (ugh.)

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Has COVID-19 affected incoming orders?

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If so, how?

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Exterior-Only Inspections

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Appraisers want to have eyes on the properties they are appraising – both inside and out. That’s difficult. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have provided guidance for residential appraisal allowing for some desk-appraisals and exterior-only inspections. However, on the commercial side, there’s a patchwork right now. Some have clarified that USPAP does not require an onsite inspection (technically).

Rules are likely to evolve in the coming weeks as the various governing units decide how to allow appraisers to do their jobs with quality while minimizing infection risk. Appraisal clients also want to be careful that there is not a transfer of risk that would not have occurred before. They don’t want to accept, “Oh well, I can’t go in, so I’ll just make an extraordinary assumption.”

Specific Changes in Market Activity for COVID-19

We then ask the commercial appraiser market survey respondents to comment on specific market activities. This is not scientific. Rather, it’s anecdotal evidence about the mindset of commercial real estate professionals in their markets. For example, 30% blame COVID-19 for sales that are either terminated or renegotiated. That’s a significant number and will make valuations hard the next few months. Terminations or renegotiation of leases and pending financing were similar. Here, 25% of respondents said COVID-19 was a factor in both.

However, 35.5% of people blamed the pandemic on construction projects being put on hold. Construction crews can’t “work from home.” Some need childcare, eldercare and/or public transit. Simple logistics are a problem plus there is fear and confusion. Families will adapt to the “new normal” and the help from the stimulus bill will level out some of those issues. Projects impacted by shelter-in-place orders will remain delayed.

Have you observed pending SALES terminated or renegotiated due to COVID-19?

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Have you observed pending LEASES terminated or renegotiated due to COVID-19?

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Have you observed pending FINANCING withdrawn or renegotiated due to COVID-19?

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Have you observed any proposed CONSTRUCTION projects being put on hold in your market due to COVID-19?

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Real Estate Values Impacted by COVID-19?

Now this is a tough question. I was on a webinar hosted jointly by the AI, IAAO, ASFMRA and ASA. As of March 31, many taxing jurisdictions are saying that a property’s value is what it was on January 1st, 2020. It won’t change until January 1, 2021. However, there’s a realization many owners will have difficulty paying the tax bill. Others expect appeals to grow. In the meantime, 34% of respondents to our survey felt COVID-19 has decreased values for residential property. On the other hand, commercial property was different. Almost half felt commercial property values have dropped due to the pandemic. Regardless of the actual change in valuations, the market is behaving far different than it was just a few weeks ago. Deals for some are slowing, and everyone is trying to find out if their tenants can pay or if the new CARES Act will affect them. Many appraisers are surely struggling with the valuations on assignments.

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Residential

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Commercial

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When Does it Get Better?

We then asked the question of how long it might take for the market to return to pre-COVID-19 conditions, the results were all over the place. The biggest group in this commercial real estate appraiser industry pulse was those who felt it would be 4-6 months (29.8%). The rest were fairly evenly distributed from 1 to 15+ months. Looking at the property types most impacted, there is no surprise. Retail and lodging are the hardest hit. apartments seem to fare the best. After all, people gotta live somewhere. The point here, I think is not trying to get consensus of what the future holds. Instead, it’s a good measure of our current thinking about the future. Right now, we just don’t know. Things are changing fast, so that won’t last long – for better or for worse, we’ll know more soon.

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What We Can Count On

One thing that is consistent is that changing property values drive appraisal activity. Therefore, commercial appraisers benefit from being in a counter-cyclical industry. When property values fall, everyone needs a smart, capable expert to help them understand it. Those who responded to this commercial appraiser market survey as well as everyone in our community are the experts the CRE industry depends on to help them make sense of valuations in the current economic downturn, just like each one before it. They all will rise to the challenge.

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Check out the survey we did in January, 2020 for a comparison on how fast times have changed.

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=”no” hundred_percent_height=”no” hundred_percent_height_scroll=”no” hundred_percent_height_center_content=”yes” equal_height_columns=”yes” menu_anchor=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” status=”published” publish_date=”” class=”” id=”” background_color=”#2b3990″ background_image=”” background_position=”center center” background_repeat=”no-repeat” fade=”no” background_parallax=”none” enable_mobile=”no” parallax_speed=”0.3″ video_mp4=”” video_webm=”” video_ogv=”” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_loop=”yes” video_mute=”yes” video_preview_image=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” admin_toggled=”yes”][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_4″ layout=”1_4″ spacing=”” center_content=”yes” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_image_id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”left top” undefined=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” hover_type=”none” border_size=”0″ border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”no”][fusion_imageframe image_id=”2671|thumbnail” max_width=”” style_type=”” blur=”” stylecolor=”” hover_type=”none” bordersize=”” bordercolor=”” borderradius=”” align=”center” lightbox=”no” gallery_id=”” lightbox_image=”” lightbox_image_id=”” alt=”Jeffrey Weiner Kansas City” link=”” linktarget=”_self” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]https://www.realquantum.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Jeff-RQ-Portrait-300×300-150×150.jpg[/fusion_imageframe][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”3_4″ layout=”3_4″ spacing=”” center_content=”yes” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_image_id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”left top” undefined=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” hover_type=”none” border_size=”0″ border_color=”” border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”no”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=””]

About the Author

Jeff Weiner is CEO of realquantum. With leadership roles in product marketing, strategy, sales and software engineering, Jeff has successfully brought multiple technology products to market in both large and small companies. Jeff has a BS in Finance and Information Systems from Shippensburg University and a MS in Information Systems from The American University in Washington, D.C. Jeff resides in the Kansas City metro.

Ready to see how you can be more successful and efficient? realquantum was created by appraisers, for appraisers, to save them time and make them money. Sign up for a demo today.

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